Stocks will fall at least 30% in a drawn-out bear market, investor David Tice warns – CNBC
Long-time bear David Tice has new warning for investors.
He expects stocks to fall at least 30% in a downturn that lasts two years. One of his major reasons: Business unfriendly policies from Washington.
“We now have a Biden administration that has a Senate and a House. They’re likely to enact very much more anti-capitalist policies,” the investor told “Trading Nation” on Friday. “They have already raised the minimum wage. That’s going to hurt earnings on the cost side.”
According to Tice, easy monetary and fiscal policies that support money printing will also sting Wall Street.
Tice is known for running the Prudent Bear Fund before selling to Federated in 2008, just as the financial crisis was unfolding.
Now as an advisor to the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF, Tice has spent much of his career making bearish bets during bull markets. His current fund, which is also designed to profit from underperformance, has been under pressure. It’s down 32% in the last three months.
In his latest warning, Tice contends the problems are piling higher. He also cites an overvalued market and coronavirus vaccine concerns for his pessimism.
“The vaccine is not really a panacea,” he added. “We’ve seen a lot of optimism about that, but there are new strains of the virus, and there is certainly risk going forward.”
“I’ve seen bear markets approach, and people have called me a perma bear,” he said. “I’m a believer in the Austrian School of Economics that says that the magnitude of the decline is proportional to the excesses created during the prior boom. I was early in 1998, 1999 and in 2006 to 2007.”
‘When it breaks, it’s likely to break hard’
Despite his bearishness, Tice doesn’t have a timeline on when the market trouble will start.
“Markets tend to get extended,” he said. “But when it breaks, it’s likely to break hard and cause investors to suffer for a long time.”