Ahead of a cold front, the atmosphere is primed for the potential for severe weather Monday and Tuesday. Because of this, as of this note, all of Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky are under either a marginal (1 out of 5) or slight (2 out of 5) risk for severe weather Monday and Tuesday.
Forecast models are having a tough time agreeing on timing and severe potential which makes this a very tricky forecast. Currently, we expect a few storms overnight tonight into Monday morning. Midday into late afternoon we will see a lull in storm potential and some breaks in the clouds that will help add to the fuel for storms. Storms will likely begin firing again around dinnertime, and continue into Tuesday morning.
Any storms that develop will contain a threat for damaging wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Because the ground is pretty damp from rain that has already fallen, and will continue to fall between now and then, the chance for a few flash flood warnings, and flood warnings for rivers, creeks, and streams cannot be ruled out.
There are many changing parts to this forecast so we may need to adjust timing and threats as we head into late Monday. Also, there is the chance for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening, but it’s unclear how much energy could remain in the atmosphere. Stay in touch with the Storm 5 Weather team for the latest updates.